Tempering Expectations

Azkalmania is making fans believe that the Philippine national football team is a cinch to make it to the top of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) Challenge Cup, now undergoing its pre-qualifying stage.

While we should celebrate the re-emergence of widespread interest in Philippine football, expectations must be tempered to avoid putting undue pressure on the Azkals. At the same time, we should realize that the bigger the bubble we create, the bigger the burst.

The Azkals’ German coach Michael Weiss himself said there is no formula for instant success in football. It takes a lot of hard work, discipline, sacrifice, support and dedication to assemble a championship team that’s not a flash in the pan. Weiss said goals must be crystal-clear and a road map developed to achieve those goals.
The first hint of success for the Azkals came during the group stage of the recent Asean Football Federation (AFF) Suzuki Cup where they advanced to the semifinals after drawing with Singapore, 1-1, and Myanmar, 0-0, and beating defending champion Vietnam, 2-0, in a monumental upset. The Azkals lost a pair of 1-0 decisions to Indonesia in the semifinals but gave a heroic account of themselves. One of the matches against Indonesia should’ve been played in the Philippines because of the home-and-away format but AFF officials ruled that no venue was fit to host anywhere in the country – a blow to national pride. No effort was made to refurbish any stadium up to par because apparently, nobody figured the Philippines would make it to the semifinals – an attitude justified by history. It’s a fact that the Philippines has never won a football medal in the Southeast Asian (SEA) Games and the closest brush was a fourth place finish in 1991. Sadly, the Philippines has participated in only one of the last five football competitions in the SEA Games.

The Philippines’ win over Vietnam was hailed as one of the top 10 football stories in the world by Sports Illustrated and inspired countries like Germany to offer grants for developing the sport. The German Football Association went as far as providing the Azkals a new coach – Weiss – at its expense.

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The euphoria generated by the Philippines’ ascension to the Suzuki Cup semifinals spilled over to the Azkals’ 2-0 drubbing of Mongolia in the opener of their AFC Challenge Cup home-and-away pre-qualifying series at the Panaad Stadium in Bacolod City last Wednesday.

To keep the fire burning, the Azkals must deliver once again in the rematch against Mongolia at Ulan Bator on March 15. Weiss said it should be smooth sailing as Mongolia needs a three-goal advantage to survive and won’t be as defense-oriented as in the opener. The problem is how the Azkals will adapt to the freezing conditions in Mongolia.

The Challenge Cup qualifiers are a fitting reintroduction of the national team because the Azkals aren’t ranged against top-caliber countries at least up to the group stage. In the latest FIFA world rankings, the Philippines is No. 152. It was lowest at No. 195 in 2006 and this time last year, No. 169. Mongolia is No. 182.

If the Philippines eliminates Mongolia, it will advance to the group stage with No. 157 Bangladesh, No. 149 Myanmar and No. 178 Palestine. The top two finishers of the group will join six others in the eight-team Challenge Cup finals where the winner is promoted to play in the AFC Asian Cup.

In the finals stage, the big guns are expected to dominate with defending champion North Korea at the top of the ladder as the only country in the “developed nation” category. The AFC classifies its member countries into three tiers – ”developed,” “developing” and “emerging.” The Philippines is in the “emerging” class.

Thailand is in the first category and Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore and Vietnam in the second.
In the SEA Games in Indonesia this November, Weiss will coach a reconfigured Philippine team because the age limit is 23. The SEA Games federation imposed an age limit for football in 2001. That means players like Aly Borromeo, Anton del Rosario, the Younghusband brothers, Chieffy Caligdong and Ian Araneta won’t be eligible. That also means the Philippines will be working double time to fill in the gaps.

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Six SEA countries are ranked higher than the Philippines by FIFA, putting in perspective the challenge that awaits the under-23 selection in Palembang. Thailand is No. 120, Indonesia No. 129, Vietnam No. 134, Malaysia No. 140, Singapore No. 142 and Myanmar No. 149. The FIFA rankings of other SEA countries are Cambodia No 166, Laos No. 169, Brunei No. 197 and Timor Leste No.201. The rankings may differ slightly when considering under-23 players.

Because of Azkalmania, more and more sponsors are pledging support for Philippine football. Air21 chairman Bert Lina immediately pledged P20 million to add to Smart’s P80 million package after witnessing the Azkals’ victory in Bacolod and two days later, increased the assistance by a million to make it P21 million, matching Air21’s magic number.

With all the hype, let’s hope the adulation doesn’t get into the Azkals’ heads. They’ve become overnight celebrities and heroes but they can’t lose their focus. It’s tempting for the Azkals to convince themselves that with the support pouring in, winning will come easy. It’s tempting for the Azkals to sit back and enjoy the moment, forgetting that hard work brought them to where they are now. It’s tempting for the Azkals to put themselves in a position where they think they can do no wrong.